Broker Check
Weekly Economic Perspectives

Weekly Economic Perspectives

January 08, 2024

Weekly Economic Perspectives is intended to share timely and relevant market and economic news and data that we are observing, which help to frame our outlook.  We hope that you find this timely and interesting.

Challenger Report for December 2023

The Challenger Report Announced Job Cuts for the month of December were an improvement on the November number, down -24% from the prior month, meaning that less job cuts were announced in December.  However, hiring plans plummeted in the month of December.  The monthly number for hiring was the lowest since 2009  You can read the full report here.

US Debt Hits Milestone

The US debt just crossed $34 trillion this week.  You can read the PBS report here.  What’s more shocking is that just 4 years ago, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had projected the federal debt surpassing the $34 trillion mark in fiscal year 2029!  Debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the primary measure of economic activity in the US, is just shy of 120%.  A study by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, done in 2009, indicates that when the ratio of debt-to-GDP exceeds 90%, economic growth moderates substantially.  A “do nothing” Congress will not do anything to derail the upward trajectory of Federal spending, as the debt ceiling has temporarily been suspended until January of 2025.

Relief on the Auto Market

The chief economist for Cox Automotive put out their 2024 outlook for the auto market.  The good news is likely there will be a shift in leverage from sellers to buyers as new inventory fills up, however, higher interest rates could be prohibitive for middle and lower income buyers, which creates a mixed picture.  You can read the full report here. 

Have a great weekend!

Gordon Asset Management, LLC Investment Policy Committee